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(B)(N) CLT Celtic Exploration Limited

January 15, 2013

Deal Book. Exxon Mobil Canada Limited and Celtic Exploration Limited have obtained the required approvals of its shareholders and debenture holders, its Board of Directors which has unanimously determined that the arrangement is in the best interests of Celtic and is fair to Celtic’s security holders, and the final order of its Plan of Arrangement under the Business Corporations Act (Alberta) by the Court of Queen’s Bench of Alberta, and a  “no action” letter confirming that the Commissioner of Competition does not intend to make an application to the Competition Tribunal under section 92 of the Competition Act (Canada) (the “Competition Act”) in respect of the Arrangement and accordingly, no further approval is required under the Competition Act (Marketwire, December 14, 2012, Celtic Exploration Security holders Approve Plan of Arrangement With Exxon Mobil).

All of this is good news and one would think that the Canadians who own its stock and debentures, and its employees, suppliers and customers have certainly received a “net economic benefit” that is more than the 35% premium over the languishing stock price of  $15 to $20 (and no dividends) prior to the announcement of this deal on October 14, 2012 three months ago (please see our Post, The New Mercantilism, October 2012) but we can’t be sure of that until we receive the further clarification and approval of the Government of Canada under the Investment Canada Act.

As investors, we might have done something else with our money during the last three months and we are minded that money that is not working is money that is lost. For example, PBN PetroBakken Energy Limited is paying a dividend that yields 9.6% at the present time and the stock of the whole company can be bought for a little more than half  ($1.8 billion) of the $3.1 billion Celtic deal. Please see our recent Post, (B)(N) PBN PetroBakken Energy Limited, January 2013, and an example of what can go wrong when companies falter in the stock market.

The current ambient stock prices of Celtic Exploration continue to be about $1.16 or one half share of the new company Kelt Exploration Limited (please see below) above the Risk Price (SF) which is almost exactly the deal price of $24.50 although the deal price – which could be anything that is required to close the deal – and the Risk Price (SF) are determined by completely different methods. Please see our Post, The Price of Risk, August 2012.

Exhibit 1: (B)(N) CLT Celtic Exploration Limited – Risk Price Chart

(B)(N) CLT Celtic Exploration Limited

Celtic Exploration Limited is a Calgary, Alberta, Canada-based oil and gas company focused on exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas resources primarily in west central Alberta.

(Please Click on the Chart to make it larger if required.)

Celtic holds large acreage positions in the Montney and Duvernay resource gas plays and has a proven track record of growing reserves, production and the underlying value of the company for its shareholders.

Moreover, should the deal receive approval under the Investment Canada Act, Celtic shareholders will also receive an interest of 1/2 share pro rata in the new company Kelt Exploration Limited which is expected to be a publicly listed junior oil and gas exploration and production company led by Celtic’s current management team and 50% owned by Canada’s largest oil & gas exploration and development company, Imperial Oil Limited.

Postscript

We are The RiskWerk Company and care not a jot for mutual funds, hedge funds, “alternative investments”, the “risk/reward equation” and every other unprovable artifact of investment lore. We have just one product

The Perpetual Bond™
“Alpha-smart with 100% Capital Safety and 100% Liquidity”
Guaranteed
With No Fees and No Loads on Capital

For more information on RiskWerk, please follow the Tags or Categories attached to this Letter or simply enter Search for additional references to any term that we have used. Related data may be obtained from us for free in a machine readable format by request to RiskWerk@gmail.com.

Disclaimer

Investing in the bond and stock markets has become a highly regulated and litigious industry but despite that, there remains only one effective rule and that is caveat emptor or “buyer beware”. Nothing that we say should be construed by any person as advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or avoid the common stock or bonds of any public company at any time for any purpose. That is the law and we fully support and respect that law and regulation in every jurisdiction without exception and without qualification to the best of our knowledge and ability. We can only tell you what we do and why we do it or have done it and we know nothing at all about the future or the future of stock prices of any company nor why they are what they are, now. The author retains all copyrights to his works in this blog and on this website. The Perpetual Bond®™ is a registered trademark and patented technology of The RiskWerk Company and RiskWerk Limited (“Company”) . The Canada Pension Bond®™ and The Medina Bond®™ are registered trademarks or trademarks of the Company as are the words and phrases “Alpha-smart”, “100% Capital Safety”, “100% Liquidity”, ”price of risk”, “risk price”, and the symbols “(B)”, “(N)” and N*.

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